Regulation Revolution: Stable coins Poised for Surge and Bitcoin Eyes $200K in 2025
Thank you, everyone, for an amazing 2024. From the 1Konto team, we’re grateful for your support and collaboration. As we look ahead to 2025, we are inspired by the opportunities to continue working together and growing together in this dynamic landscape.
Digital Asset Market: Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs in 2025, with predictions ranging from $150,000 to $250,000 as analysts cite factors like institutional adoption, the impact of U.S. spot ETFs, Trump’s pro-crypto policies, and the recent halving event. The cryptocurrency’s 2024 rally past $100,000, boosted by favorable regulation and ETF approvals, sets the stage for broader mainstream acceptance. While some foresee volatility due to leveraged trades and geopolitical risks, most agree institutional support and strategic reserves could buffer major corrections, driving a sustained bullish trajectory for bitcoin.
Macro Economics: State Street Global Advisors' 2025 Global Market Outlook projects continued macroeconomic resilience and further rate cuts, building on the easing cycle initiated in 2024. Despite geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility, the firm anticipates a U.S. soft landing and recommends above-target equity allocations, particularly favoring U.S. large-cap equities for their structural advantages. While fixed-income markets are expected to benefit from slowing economic output and tame inflation, tactical opportunities could arise from sentiment swings and duration positioning. Outside the U.S., pockets of opportunity exist, though challenges like demographic shifts, geoeconomic fragmentation, and uneven growth in regions like China and Japan add complexity.
Equities: Stocks making significant premarket moves included MicroStrategy and other crypto-related companies like Coinbase, Marathon Holdings, and Riot Platforms, which rose as Bitcoin prices increased. VeriSign gained over 3% after Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake, while Sangamo Therapeutics plunged more than 54% as Pfizer ended their hemophilia A gene therapy partnership. EQT rose modestly after closing a $3.5 billion midstream joint venture with Blackstone and using proceeds to reduce debt. Tesla climbed 1.7%, continuing its December rally, while Nvidia and Super Micro Computer also posted slight gains, with Nvidia extending its positive momentum from the prior session.
The Fed and US Treasury: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. will hit its $36 trillion debt ceiling as early as January 14, 2025, unless Congress acts or the Treasury takes "extraordinary measures" to avoid default. The debt limit, suspended until January 1, will prevent further borrowing and could lead to a default if not addressed. President-elect Donald Trump unsuccessfully pushed to abolish the debt ceiling in the end-of-year funding bill, creating a contentious battle for the new administration. While Democrats advocate raising or eliminating the limit, Republicans cite rising federal debt as a reason to oppose such moves, setting up a critical fiscal showdown early next year.
Geopolitical: The U.S. Treasury Department confirmed a significant cybersecurity breach by a state-sponsored Chinese hacking group, which exploited vulnerabilities in third-party software from BeyondTrust to access the desktop computers of Treasury employees. The breach, disclosed in a letter to Congress, allowed unauthorized access to unclassified documents by bypassing security measures. The Treasury has since taken the compromised service offline and found no evidence of ongoing access. The department, alongside agencies like CISA and the FBI, is investigating the incident to assess its impact. While China denies the allegations, the Treasury emphasized its commitment to bolstering cybersecurity and plans to provide a supplemental report within 30 days.
How can we help?
For bespoke OTC block orders and lending needs, contact: Edwin Handschuh, Co-founder/CEO: Calendar | Telegram | Email
For digital asset on/off ramp and Bitcoin-backed lending, contact:
Curtis Crispin, Director of Institutional Sales: Calendar | Telegram | Email
2025 View from our desk
In 2025, we anticipate significant advancements in the digital asset landscape as U.S. regulatory clarity improves. This progress will likely catalyze a 2x-5x surge in stablecoin usage, particularly in international trade, with growing acceptance for domestic transactions. While the EU’s MiCA regulations could temper stablecoin adoption in Europe, the rest of the world is expected to accelerate. Bitcoin is poised for another standout year, with our internal price target in the $200,000 range. If the proposed U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve becomes a reality, we foresee global ripple effects as countries and corporations reassess their exposure to Bitcoin, prompting broader adoption and a move away from “zero exposure” strategies. We expect the $200k level to be thoroughly breached in this scenario.
Globally, we will continue to see a political pivot as nations prioritize internal rebuilding to address economic and political concerns. This inward focus could reduce foreign conflicts and recalibrate government priorities, fostering more stable foundations. In the U.S., we anticipate that Trump’s proposed tax reforms—such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security—will increase inflation, raise interest rates, and boost risk asset prices as the Federal Reserve faces growing challenges in market control. Despite hopes for fiscal discipline, a government shutdown over the debt ceiling could benefit the U.S. by forcing hard conversations about its unsustainable $37 trillion debt and $6.8 trillion budget. However, we remain skeptical about the likelihood of achieving significant spending cuts, even with initiatives like the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Our base case is that the US government marches toward $40 trillion in debt, and the Federal Reserve continues to devalue the USD.
Overall, we see a promising economic environment with rising business formation, potential tax reductions, persistent real inflation, and continued gains in tangible assets. However, the housing market could face challenges due to elevated interest rates, high housing costs, and buyer fatigue. A reversal in this trend may require either a decline in housing prices or substantial real wage growth outpacing interest rates to restore affordability and reinvigorate buyer activity.
2025 promises to be a transformative year for digital assets, and we are proud to be at the forefront of driving commercial adoption. Focusing on stablecoins, Bitcoin-backed loans, and a few exciting stealth projects in development, we are committed to enabling innovative financial solutions that align with the evolving economic and regulatory landscape. As we navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead, we remain dedicated to delivering value to our clients and partners while contributing to the broader maturation of the digital asset ecosystem.
Happy Trading!
The 1Konto Team
Why Partner with 1Konto?
1Konto delivers deep liquidity, seamless trading, and secure Bitcoin-backed lending with no rehypothecation. Trusted by institutions worldwide, we offer tailored solutions to optimize your digital asset strategy.
Ready to Elevate Your Trading and Lending Strategy?
Connect with 1Konto's expert OTC desk for tailored trading solutions, deep liquidity, and secure Bitcoin-backed lending. Contact us today.
About 1Konto
1Konto is a premier OTC liquidity provider, offering institutions seamless on/off ramp solutions for stablecoins, fiat currencies, BTC, ETH, and select altcoins through its flagship platform, 1KPrime. Clients benefit from deep liquidity, best price execution, and streamlined trading and settlement. Our Bitcoin-backed loans ensure assets remain securely held in bank custody, enabling institutions to unlock liquidity while keeping collateral secure.
Not Financial Advice Disclaimer
The content of our substack market briefs is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Any investment decisions made based on the information provided are solely at your own risk. We do not endorse or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the information shared. It is recommended to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
 | A guest post by
|