Treasury Yields Wait on Jobs, Crypto Liquidity Keeps Draining
Digital Asset Market:
Bitcoin is trading near $58,878 and Ethereum near $1,571, with both assets still under pressure while broader risk markets recover. Bitcoin’s intraday low near $58,191 keeps it below the $60,000 level that traders have been watching as a psychological and liquidity threshold. Economic Times also reported Bitcoin at around $59,437 today, with traders focused on Fed policy expectations and institutional demand as the two variables capping upside momentum.The flow tape remains the problem. U.S. spot crypto ETFs recorded roughly $255.4 million in combined net outflows on June 29, with Bitcoin and Ether funds still seeing redemption pressure while Solana ETFs showed selective demand. That matters because Bitcoin is no longer getting the full benefit of stronger equities or lower oil. It is trading as a flow-sensitive asset, with the marginal buyer having stepped back and the marginal seller still active through the ETF channel. Stablecoins remain structurally separate from that weakness: speculative crypto beta is soft, but institutional demand for dollar settlement, collateral mobility, and cross-border liquidity remains more resilient than token price action.
Macroeconomics:
The macro setup is shifting from oil shock to macro-data dependency. Trading Economics showed Brent near $74.14 and crude near $70.89, well below the panic levels seen during the Hormuz stress, while the U.S. 10-year yield was around 4.40%. That gives markets a cleaner inflation backdrop than earlier in June, but it does not eliminate the policy constraint. Barron’s reported that Treasury yields rose ahead of U.S. labor data, with markets still watching the lack of a full restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and oil edging higher.The key macro tension is that lower oil helps inflation expectations, but the labor market now takes over as the next rate trigger. Barron’s also noted that Treasury yields edged lower in another update as markets shifted focus from geopolitics toward the employment report due Thursday, which should provide the next signal on labor conditions and the Fed path. That means the market is no longer trading one dominant shock. It is rotating among energy relief, labor data, Treasury demand, and the question of whether the Fed is still priced for a higher-for-longer path.
Equities:
Equities are recovering, led again by tech. SPY is trading near $743.53, up modestly on the day, while QQQ is near $731.81 and outperforming, up about 1.1%. TheStreet reported that stocks edged higher Tuesday after the Dow closed at a record high, while markets rallied sharply Monday as technology shares rebounded from a prior five-day losing streak. AP reported Monday’s S&P 500 gain at 1.2%, Nasdaq at 2.1%, and Dow at 0.6%, with AI-related stocks helping drive the rebound.The equity signal is cleaner than crypto but still concentrated. MarketWatch reported that the second-half surprise could be further AI upside, with strategists pointing to earnings growth and lower forward multiples across key AI-linked names as a reason the trade could keep powering higher. But The Guardian described a rocky week for AI shares, with pressure in major tech and chip names tied to leadership changes, chipmaker investment concerns, and questions around demand for high-bandwidth memory. The result is a market where AI can still lead, but leadership now requires cleaner earnings, stronger capex discipline, and fewer signs that infrastructure spending is outrunning near-term returns.
The Fed and US Treasury:
The Treasury market is no longer giving a single clean signal. The 10-year yield is around 4.40%, while TLT is down slightly on the day, suggesting long-duration demand is not fully confirming the equity rally. Barron’s reported Treasury yields rose ahead of U.S. labor data and said Fed funds futures priced at least one Fed hike this year, while a separate Barron’s update said yields edged lower as focus shifted toward the June employment report. The message is not that rates have broken decisively lower. The market is waiting for labor data to decide whether oil relief is enough to change the Fed's path.That puts the Fed back in the center, but through data rather than rhetoric. If Thursday’s labor report shows resilience, markets may keep pricing higher-for-longer despite lower oil. If it shows cooling without a growth scare, equities and long-duration assets get a better setup. The risk is that a strong labor print, with crypto ETF outflows and a still-fragile long end, would tighten financial conditions via rates, not through an immediate Fed move. From a market-structure standpoint, Treasury stability remains the condition needed for AI multiples and crypto liquidity to stop fighting the macro tape.
Geopolitical:
The geopolitical risk premium has cooled, but it has not disappeared. Trading Economics showed Brent near $74.14 and crude near $70.89, which signals meaningful relief from earlier Hormuz panic levels. Barron’s still noted that a full agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive, with oil edging higher in that update and Treasury yields rising as investors priced the uncertainty alongside labor-data risk.The market’s focus has shifted from headline escalation to operational confirmation. It is no longer enough for oil to fall on diplomatic optimism. Investors need evidence that tanker movement, insurance costs, and physical throughput are normalizing. Until that happens, the geopolitical channel remains embedded in energy, FX, and rates even if crude is well off the highs. The practical read is that the oil shock has become less acute, but the corridor risk has not fully cleared.
View from our desk
Bitcoin is losing the flow argument
Bitcoin below $60,000 while QQQ rallies tells us the crypto market is still dealing with its own demand problem. The broader risk tape is not collapsing, oil has fallen materially from the prior shock zone, and tech is recovering, yet Bitcoin remains pinned by ETF redemptions and weak marginal allocation. That matters because Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple high-beta extension of Nasdaq. It is trading as a flow-sensitive asset, with institutional vehicles serving as the clearing mechanism on both the way up and the way down. We think the next real confirmation point is not a short-covering bounce, but a visible slowing of ETF outflows and a recovery in spot demand. Until that shows up, rallies below the prior liquidity zone should be treated as fragile rather than durable.
The market is rotating from oil shock to jobs risk
Oil relief has given markets breathing room, but the baton is now passing to Thursday’s labor report. That shift matters because a lower crude price helps inflation expectations, but a resilient labor market can still keep the Fed constrained and the long end unsettled. The setup is therefore less about whether geopolitics calms down and more about whether macro data allows investors to price lower real-rate pressure without also pricing weaker growth. If payrolls cool in an orderly way, equities and duration can extend the relief trade. If the labor print is too strong, yields can reprice higher again, and the same pressure that has kept Bitcoin weak could move back into tech and credit.
AI leadership still needs a cleaner margin story
The equity rebound is being carried by AI and large-cap technology, which is constructive for index levels but less convincing as a broad liquidity signal. AI-linked names can continue to lead if earnings growth holds and forward multiples remain defensible, but the market is becoming more sensitive to capex intensity, chip demand, and whether infrastructure spending translates into operating leverage. The rally does not need perfect conditions, but it does need fewer signs that funding costs and investment requirements are compressing future margins. Our read is that lower yields help the AI trade, but they do not solve the margin-for-error problem. The next leg higher will require either broader equity participation or stronger evidence that AI infrastructure spending is producing revenue quality, not just headline growth.
Happy Trading!
The 1Konto Team
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